James Fischer-Myall · Sign out
Timing Across the Season
How the year shapes when each part of the plan happens
This supports my priorities and the risks and opportunities above. It's how I'd read the business across the year. I've assumed a season of slow growth in January and February, heavy growth March to May, no growth in June and July, peak from August to November, and a wind-down into the Christmas break in December. The units and dollar figures are illustrative only and would be replaced with the client's own numbers.
The season
Return on invested capital by month
Whole business, annualised. Blue is a positive return, red is a loss month. Shading shows the season.
ROIC per unit, by month
| Unit | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | ||||||||||||
| Construction crew 1 | 8% | 14% | 27% | 33% | 28% | −22% | −25% | 37% | 44% | 47% | 43% | 2% |
| Construction crew 2 | 3% | 8% | 22% | 27% | 23% | −26% | −30% | 31% | 38% | 41% | 37% | −3% |
| Renovation crew | 11% | 17% | 32% | 39% | 33% | −19% | −23% | 43% | 51% | 55% | 50% | 5% |
| Maintenance crew | 23% | 27% | 38% | 43% | 39% | 2% | 0% | 46% | 53% | 56% | 52% | 19% |
Colour: red is a loss month, grey is about break-even, deeper blue is a higher return. Values are annualised ROIC for that month.
ROIC per unit, full year
Maintenance crew returns the most on its capital because it carries the least plant and its work holds up through the quiet months. Construction crew 2 has 3 loss months: it's the most exposed to the season.
Service efficiency by month
Show the monthly numbers
| Month | Season | Activity | Revenue | NOPAT | ROIC (ann.) | Utilisation | On-time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | Slow growth | 0.70 | $500k | $21k | 8.6% | 60% | 97% |
| Feb | Slow growth | 0.78 | $551k | $35k | 13.8% | 66% | 97% |
| Mar | Heavy growth | 1.00 | $690k | $72k | 27.2% | 82% | 97% |
| Apr | Heavy growth | 1.10 | $753k | $89k | 32.8% | 90% | 93% |
| May | Heavy growth | 1.02 | $703k | $75k | 28.4% | 84% | 96% |
| Jun | Dead | 0.32 | $260k | −$44k | −20.2% | 34% | 97% |
| Jul | Dead | 0.28 | $234k | −$51k | −23.6% | 31% | 97% |
| Aug | Peak | 1.18 | $804k | $103k | 37.1% | 94% | 90% |
| Sep | Peak | 1.32 | $893k | $127k | 44.1% | 95% | 84% |
| Oct | Peak | 1.38 | $931k | $137k | 47.0% | 95% | 81% |
| Nov | Peak | 1.30 | $880k | $123k | 43.2% | 95% | 85% |
| Dec | Wind-down (assumed) | 0.62 | $449k | $7k | 3.0% | 54% | 97% |
What this tells me, and how it shapes the plan
Level 1 Peak, August to November
Highest return and full crews, but on-time completion drops to about 81% as crews are stretched. This is when the existing mandates are most at risk, so it's the wrong time for any change. All effort goes into delivery, variations and invoicing.
Level 1Level 2 Slow growth, January and February
Carry-over work from peak gets completed and the cash from peak gets collected. With activity at about 70 to 80% of an average month, this is the right window to bring in the Level 2 controls without getting in the way of the crews.
Level 2 Heavy growth, March to May
Strong work and a second chance to fill the pipeline. This is when I'd sit down with the general manager on capacity: what's already committed for August, what we can still take on, and when we'd need to hire in plant or labour.
Level 3 Dead months, June and July
Fixed costs keep running, so the business makes a loss on most units. It's also the least disruptive time for any Level 3 change: systems, training, plant servicing, ticket renewals and structure. If the owner and general manager decide to make a change, this is the window to do it in.